MICROCREDIT AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TOWARDS EXPO 2025: SOCIAL INNOVATION FOR A MORE INCLUSIVE WORLD

In a global context characterised by increasingly rapid economic, social and technological transformations, new development trajectories are emerging that require a rethinking of inclusion and innovation policies. In this scenario, three distinct but interconnected fields assume particular strategic relevance: social microcredit as a tool for economic emancipation, Expo 2025 in Osaka as a platform for international cooperation and the promotion of social innovation, and artificial intelligence applied to credit access processes.

Although operating in different contexts, these elements share a common goal: to promote fairer and more sustainable development models, capable of enhancing the centrality of the individual and reducing structural inequalities.

The historical origins of microcredit: emancipation and inclusion

Microcredit was born as an instrument of social emancipation, the child of the pioneering experience of Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. This model, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006, has shown how small loans can transform the lives of millions of people, especially women, enabling them to start businesses and escape poverty.

Although Italy introduced microcredit with some delay compared to other European countries, it can now boast a unique record: it is the only nation on the continent to have established, with a specific law, a national body responsible for coordinating and promoting microcredit.

National Microcredit Agency (ENM), operates as a non-economic public body with the task of promoting, guiding, facilitating, evaluating and monitoring the microfinance instruments promoted by the European Union and the activities carried out with EU funds. The organisation, which has a widespread network throughout the territory and a clear regulatory framework, represents an institutional model that is unprecedented in Europe. In other countries, in fact, microcredit is often managed by private entities, NGOs or local public bodies, without a centralised framework.

The ENM works closely with the Bank of Italy and coordinates a network of tutors and financial intermediaries, providing technical support and accompaniment to beneficiaries. From 2015 to date, the ENM has disbursed more than EUR 431 million, supporting around 45,000 work units through more than 18,000 operations. The trend is growing: in 2023 alone, some 3,200 operations with a total value of more than EUR 90 million were guaranteed. The average loan amount has increased from EUR 24,500 in 2020 to EUR 34,000 in 2023, also thanks to the revision of the maximum amount that can be granted. The average age of beneficiaries is 37: 60% are between 30 and 50 years old, 29% under 30 and 11% over 50.

Expo Japan: social innovation, international cooperation and art

The Osaka Expo 2025, entitled 'Designing Future Society for Our Lives', has given new impetus to global reflection on the role of social finance. Among the protagonists of this reflection is the Nippon Foundation, which has highlighted the potential of Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), innovative financial instruments introduced in Vietnam back in 2016 in collaboration with the Vietnam Bank for Social Policy. Involving public and private actors, SIBs have shown how sustainability, replicability and social impact can coexist in a single strategy.

A significant symbolic element will be the presence of the Holy See in the Italian Pavilion, which for the first time in Expo history will host a space dedicated to the Vatican. A masterpiece personally selected by Pope Francis will be exhibited here: according to official sources, it will be Caravaggio's Deposition of Christ. The project, entitled 'Beauty brings hope', is conceived as a bridge between Christian spirituality and Japanese culture, aimed at conveying a universal message of inclusion and harmony. Beauty, in this context, becomes not only an artistic expression, but also a lever for social innovation.

The Japanese experience has also been studied in academia: Takashi Kubota and colleagues (2019) have highlighted the importance of creating international partnerships to develop forms of microcredit capable of adapting to local contexts. The example of the Nippon Foundation shows how Asia can inspire new models of cooperation in Europe as well, suggesting innovative paths in the name of inclusion.

Artificial intelligence: a new frontier for microcredit

Technological developments have opened up new perspectives for the microcredit sector. According to a Bank of Italy report (2022), 68% of Italian financial intermediaries already use machine learning algorithms to assess creditworthiness. These techniques make it possible to reduce analysis time, improve accuracy and customise offers based on unconventional data, such as digital behaviour or recurring expenses.

Artificial intelligence (AI), therefore, represents a strategic resource to support micro-businesses that often do not meet the criteria required by traditional credit. However, the adoption of AI also brings with it potential critical issues; there is a risk that algorithms, if not designed with strict ethical criteria, perpetuate systemic biases, unknowingly penalising the most vulnerable segments of the population. Such biases can arise from the quality of data used for training and the lack of transparency in decision-making models.

To avoid these distortions, it is essential that financial institutions adopt shared ethical principles, ensuring transparency, accountability and inclusiveness in decision-making processes. In this sense, ENM could play a leading role in promoting the ethical use of AI within the Italian microfinance ecosystem.

Challenges and prospects: towards an inclusive and innovative microcredit

Looking ahead, microcredit faces crucial challenges. On the one hand, international cooperation must be strengthened to define common ethical standards on the use of artificial intelligence. On the other, there is an urgent need to invest in financial and digital education to bridge the technology gap and make innovation accessible to all.

According to ISTAT, 23% of Italian micro-enterprises are still excluded from traditional credit. The integration of models such as Social Impact Bonds and the potential of AI could represent a decisive breakthrough in meeting this need. In this context, the sharing of good practices at international level - such as those promoted by the Nippon Foundation - may help to build fairer and more effective instruments.

Conclusion: microcredit between historical memory and the challenge of the future

Born to respond to social justice needs, microcredit today is at a crossroads. From the campaigns of Bangladesh to the Osaka Expo, passing through the Italian experiences, the red thread linking these stages is the tension towards a more inclusive, sustainable and humane economy.

Artificial intelligence, if used with awareness and responsibility, can become a powerful ally in extending access to credit and multiplying its social impact. But the real challenge will be to preserve the social soul of this tool, combining innovation and justice.

As Yunus himself recalled, 'credit is a human right'. The microcredit of the future will be all the more effective the more it can remain faithful to this vision, bringing real opportunities where before there was exclusion.